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London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation

22K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.1%Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 55.6%Based on 22K games
0%55.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 55.6%
Outcome Distribution
52.5%5.1%42.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nc3
London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation
Analyzen=22K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.1%

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 55.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.5% and 55.6%), based on 22K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 34% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 34.2% win rate (73 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.2% win rate (267 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.3% win rate (625 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.5% win rate (1,270 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.7% win rate (2,419 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.7% win rate (4,517 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.8% win rate (6,527 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.8% win rate (5,650 games)
  • 2500+: 52.5% win rate (1,066 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (53%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 53.4% win rate (4,773 games)
  • Blitz: 52.3% win rate (14,441 games)
  • Rapid: 52.2% win rate (3,065 games)
  • Classical: 52.8% win rate (134 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 34.8% expected score (28 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (128 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (97 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (195 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (332 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (95 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (327 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (738 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (194 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (518 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (1,490 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (382 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (649 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (3,075 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (743 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (50 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (998 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (4,463 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (1,033 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (33 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (1,407 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (3,691 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (543 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 83.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (515 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (527 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 69.6% expected score (24 games)

Related Openings

Parent
London System
48.4%
Analyze London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate?

The London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 22K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation perform best?

The London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 54.7% win rate for white (4.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.4%) outperforms Classical (52.8%) by 0.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation?

The London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 43.2%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 267 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 0.6% draw rate.

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 44.1%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 625 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.0%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.5%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 50.0%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-54.6%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.0%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.7%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-59.8%) win rate for white (134 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.0%.

Is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation a good opening?

The London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.