London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation
22K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.6%.
Measured over 22K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 22K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 22K
- Best context
- 58.0% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 53.6% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.9%
- Draws
- 5.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 35.1% at 0-999, 60.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.4% expected score (36 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 34.8% expected score (28 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (128 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (97 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (42 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (195 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (332 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (95 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (327 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (738 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (194 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (518 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (1,490 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (382 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (28 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (649 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (3,075 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (743 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (50 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (998 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (4,463 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (1,033 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (33 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (1,407 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (3,691 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (543 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 83.3% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (515 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (527 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 69.6% expected score (24 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation scores 55.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.5% and 55.6% — from 22K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 22K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate?
Playing the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation, White wins 52.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 22K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation perform best?
The London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 57.1% (4.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.9% in Blitz (14K games) against 55.4% in Rapid (3.1K games).
How sharp is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation?
The London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.2%, draws 0.6% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 267 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 47.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 625 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 51.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 54.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 54.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.8%, draws 5.6% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.8%, draws 5.8% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.5%, draws 6.6% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 53.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.
What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 52.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 52.2%, draws 6.3% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.
What is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 52.8%, draws 10.0% and loses 37.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 134 Lichess games.
Is the London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation a good opening?
The London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.5% of its games and loses 42.4%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.