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Lemming Defense

1 variations · 116K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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1...Na6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

40.7%

35%55%
Floor40.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 41.0%.

Measured over 116K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 116K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#62 of 62
Games in this context
116K
Best context
53.3% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Worst context
29.3% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Variations measured
1
Average game length
31 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1Lemming DefenseBest here
1.e4 Na6
Floor 40.5% · 116K games
40.7%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 36.5% at 0-999, 23.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (153 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.6% expected score (7,164 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 37.8% expected score (12,233 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 33.8% expected score (8,162 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.8% expected score (196 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.3% expected score (239 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5,078 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.2% expected score (7,474 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 32.1% expected score (3,522 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (333 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (336 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.2% expected score (4,276 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 39.9% expected score (6,749 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 29.3% expected score (2,561 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 19.8% expected score (341 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (585 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (3,985 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (6,743 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (2,788 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 23.3% expected score (429 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (265 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (4,055 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (4,859 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (1,492 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.5% expected score (281 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (3,607 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (6,071 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (1,052 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (52 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 25.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4,492 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (6,153 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (696 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (4,723 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (2,200 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 29.1% expected score (220 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (1,890 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 32.6% expected score (462 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 4.7% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 5.5% expected score (12 games)

1 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Lemming Defense116K games
40.7%Floor 40.5%
Analyze Lemming Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Lemming Defense family scores 40.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 40.5% and 41.0% — from 116K Lichess games across 1 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
116K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Lemming Defense win rate?

Across the Lemming Defense's 1 variations, Black wins 38.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 57.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.7%. It rests on 116K rated games from Lichess.

How many Lemming Defense variations are there?

1 Lemming Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Lemming Defense perform best?

The Lemming Defense family performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 48.9% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Lemming Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Lemming Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 41.5% in Blitz (53K games) against 34.5% in Rapid (21K games).

How sharp is the Lemming Defense?

Lemming Defense games are 95.7% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Lemming Defense a good opening family?

The Lemming Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 38.5% and loses 57.2%. Results differ between its 1 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.