Lemming Defense

1 variations · 116K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Lemming Defense leaves Black at 40.7% — consider alternatives.

The minimum advantage of -19.1% suggests this opening underperforms statistically at your level.

You play

Tough Sell

Rating

Time

Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 40.5% – 41.0%Aggregated from 1 variations

0%40.7%100%

Range (90% confident): 40.5% – 41.0%

ContextOverall · n=116K

Outcome Distribution

38.5%4.3%57.2%

Win

Draw

Loss

1...Na6

Lemming Defense

Variations1

Games (Context)116K

Avg Length31 moves

Draw Rate4.3%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall

#1Lemming DefenseTop Pick

1.e4 Na6

Min adv -19.1% · n=116K

40.7%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Lemming Defense family has a 40.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 40.5% and 41.0%), aggregated from 1 variations and 116K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 34% → 37%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (43%), worst in Classical (25%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · Black expected scores

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (153 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.6% expected score (7,164 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 37.8% expected score (12,233 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 33.8% expected score (8,162 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 30.8% expected score (196 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.3% expected score (239 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5,078 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.2% expected score (7,474 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 32.1% expected score (3,522 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (333 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (336 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.2% expected score (4,276 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 39.9% expected score (6,749 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 29.3% expected score (2,561 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 19.8% expected score (341 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (585 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (3,985 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (6,743 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (2,788 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 23.3% expected score (429 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (265 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (4,055 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (4,859 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (1,492 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.5% expected score (281 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (99 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (3,607 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (6,071 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (1,052 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (52 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 25.4% expected score (29 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4,492 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (6,153 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (696 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (4,723 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (2,200 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 29.1% expected score (220 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (1,890 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 32.6% expected score (462 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 4.7% expected score (67 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 5.5% expected score (12 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (1)

Lemming Defense116K games

Losing40.7%

Analyze Lemming Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Lemming Defense win rate?

The Lemming Defense family has a 57.2% (90% CI: 56.9%-57.4%) win rate for white, aggregated from 1 variations and 116K rated games from Lichess.

How many Lemming Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 1 Lemming Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Lemming Defense perform best?

The Lemming Defense family performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 60.7% win rate for white (28K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Lemming Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (68.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (55.7%) by 13.2% across all Lemming Defense variations.

How sharp is the Lemming Defense?

Lemming Defense games are 95.7% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Lemming Defense a good opening family?

The Lemming Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 57.2% (90% CI: 56.9%-57.4%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 1 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.