138K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 50.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 51.0%), based on 138K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 60% → 51%
Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (40%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 138K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 57.0% win rate for white (329 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (49.4%) outperforms Classical (39.6%) by 9.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 57.0% (90% CI: 52.5%-61.5%) win rate for white, based on 329 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 52.5% (90% CI: 49.6%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 825 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.5%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.7%) win rate for white (61K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.5%) win rate for white (71K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 43.8% (90% CI: 42.8%-44.8%) win rate for white (6.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.
In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit has a 39.6% (90% CI: 35.1%-44.2%) win rate for white (308 Lichess games). Draw rate is 14.1%.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Sämisch Gambit is statistically balanced with a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.