70K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 49.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 49.9%), based on 70K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 33% → 53%
Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (41%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 70K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.0% win rate for white (8.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (49.3%) outperforms Classical (41.2%) by 8.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 41.1% (90% CI: 33.2%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 102 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 39.2% (90% CI: 35.1%-43.3%) win rate for white, based on 380 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 40.1% (90% CI: 38.1%-42.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 39.7% (90% CI: 38.6%-40.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 42.2% (90% CI: 41.4%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.0%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.3%) win rate for white (48K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 41.4% (90% CI: 40.5%-42.3%) win rate for white (7.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.
In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a 41.2% (90% CI: 37.8%-44.6%) win rate for white (573 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense is statistically balanced with a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.