11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line has a 59.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 59.2% and 60.7%), based on 11K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Stable across ratings (~71%)
Best in Bullet (67%), worst in Classical (42%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.5%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 69.9% win rate for white (3.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (66.5%) outperforms Classical (41.9%) by 24.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line has a sharpness score of 92.6 (decisive), meaning 92.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 45 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line has a 47.1% (90% CI: 43.2%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 428 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.2%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line has a 69.9% (90% CI: 68.6%-71.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 61 moves with a 10.8% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line has a 66.5% (90% CI: 65.1%-67.8%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.7%) win rate for white (7.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.1%-56.0%) win rate for white (767 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.4%.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line is statistically favors white with a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.5%-57.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.