5.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 50.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.5% and 51.7%), based on 5.8K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 43% → 53%
Best in Rapid (50%), worst in Classical (33%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.2% win rate for white (717 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (49.6%) outperforms Blitz (46.7%) by 2.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 42.3% (90% CI: 36.0%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 158 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 46.7% (90% CI: 43.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 490 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 47.5% (90% CI: 45.3%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.7%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 717 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.3%-52.0%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.4%-48.0%) win rate for white (4.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-54.2%) win rate for white (372 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense is statistically balanced with a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.