Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation
17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.6%.
Measured over 17K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 17K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 17K
- Best context
- 53.2% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 50.3% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.0%
- Draws
- 3.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.8% at 0-999, 55.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (73 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (238 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (205 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (53 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (672 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (805 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (183 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (1,066 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,511 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (480 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (21 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,165 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (2,451 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (862 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (38 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,032 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (2,428 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (764 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (66 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (697 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (1,260 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (372 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (380 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (346 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (99 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (43 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation scores 51.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.3% and 52.6% — from 17K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 17K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 17K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 55.8% (828 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.6% in Blitz (9.1K games) against 51.4% in Rapid (2.8K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.0%, draws 1.9% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 497 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 51.1%, draws 2.3% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 50.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 828 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.1%, draws 1.9% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 49.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 136 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 50.4% of its games and loses 46.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.