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Irish Gambit

1 variations · 78K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
3.Nxe5
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · Overall

32.3%

25%55%
Floor32.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 32.6%.

Measured over 78K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 78K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
#56 of 56
Games in this context
78K
Best context
53.5% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
Worst context
17.5% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Variations measured
1
Average game length
24 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

White · Overall
#1Irish GambitBest here
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Nxe5
Floor 32.0% · 78K games
32.3%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 36.8% at 0-999, 46.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (329 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.9% expected score (10,596 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 32.4% expected score (12,283 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.6% expected score (11,055 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.2% expected score (152 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.7% expected score (500 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 36.4% expected score (5,528 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.8% expected score (6,572 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 28.9% expected score (4,887 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 27.7% expected score (259 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (625 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 32.7% expected score (3,190 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 26.5% expected score (3,512 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 23.7% expected score (2,845 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 19.9% expected score (289 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (617 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 27.5% expected score (2,633 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 18.3% expected score (2,370 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 17.5% expected score (1,902 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 12.6% expected score (402 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (531 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 40.6% expected score (1,535 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 23.1% expected score (1,109 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 21.2% expected score (479 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 17.0% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (328 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (1,234 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 31.8% expected score (613 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 17.9% expected score (145 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (161 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (659 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 25.2% expected score (158 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 11.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (195 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (12 games)

1 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Irish Gambit78K games
32.3%Floor 32.0%
Analyze Irish Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Irish Gambit family scores 32.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 32.0% and 32.6% — from 78K Lichess games across 1 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
78K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Irish Gambit win rate?

Across the Irish Gambit's 1 variations, White wins 30.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 66.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 32.3%. It rests on 78K rated games from Lichess.

How many Irish Gambit variations are there?

1 Irish Gambit variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Irish Gambit perform best?

The Irish Gambit family performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 41.8% (1.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Irish Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Irish Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 29.5% in Blitz (27K games) against 27.8% in Rapid (21K games).

How sharp is the Irish Gambit?

Irish Gambit games are 96.6% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 24 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Irish Gambit a good opening family?

The Irish Gambit family is hard work for White — it favours Black overall. Across its games, White wins 30.6% and loses 66.0%. Results differ between its 1 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.