What is the Irish Gambit expected score for White?
Snapshot
Overall, the Irish Gambit family has a 32.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 32.0% and 32.6%), aggregated from 1 variations and 78K Lichess games.
Irish Gambit
1 variations · 78K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Irish Gambit leaves White at 32.3% — consider alternatives.
The minimum advantage of -36.0% suggests this opening underperforms statistically at your level.
You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 32.0% – 32.6%Aggregated from 1 variations
0%32.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 32.0% – 32.6%
ContextOverall · n=78K
Outcome Distribution
30.6%3.4%66.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Nxe5
Irish Gambit
Variations1
Games (Context)78K
Avg Length24 moves
Draw Rate3.4%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
White Win% by Rating
Improves with rating: 32% → 41%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 32.2% win rate (34,415 games)
- 1000-1199: 30.8% win rate (17,746 games)
- 1200-1399: 27.6% win rate (10,461 games)
- 1400-1599: 22.5% win rate (7,924 games)
- 1600-1799: 32.6% win rate (3,698 games)
- 1800-1999: 37.5% win rate (2,329 games)
- 2000-2199: 40.5% win rate (1,015 games)
- 2200-2499: 41.7% win rate (271 games)
- 2500+: 40.7% win rate (12 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Classical (18%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 49.6% win rate (3,140 games)
- Bullet: 36.1% win rate (25,582 games)
- Blitz: 27.7% win rate (26,640 games)
- Rapid: 25.4% win rate (21,353 games)
- Classical: 18.4% win rate (1,156 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · White expected scores
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (329 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.9% expected score (10,596 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 32.4% expected score (12,283 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.6% expected score (11,055 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.2% expected score (152 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.7% expected score (500 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 36.4% expected score (5,528 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.8% expected score (6,572 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 28.9% expected score (4,887 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 27.7% expected score (259 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (625 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 32.7% expected score (3,190 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 26.5% expected score (3,512 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 23.7% expected score (2,845 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 19.9% expected score (289 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (617 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 27.5% expected score (2,633 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 18.3% expected score (2,370 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 17.5% expected score (1,902 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 12.6% expected score (402 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (531 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 40.6% expected score (1,535 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 23.1% expected score (1,109 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 21.2% expected score (479 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 17.0% expected score (44 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (328 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (1,234 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 31.8% expected score (613 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 17.9% expected score (145 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (161 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (659 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 25.2% expected score (158 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 11.3% expected score (36 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (49 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (195 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (23 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (1)
Analyze Irish Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Irish Gambit win rate?
The Irish Gambit family has a 30.6% (90% CI: 30.3%-30.9%) win rate for white, aggregated from 1 variations and 78K rated games from Lichess.
How many Irish Gambit variations are there?
This analysis covers 1 Irish Gambit variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Irish Gambit perform best?
The Irish Gambit family performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 40.5% win rate for white (1.0K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Irish Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
UltraBullet (49.6%) outperforms Classical (18.4%) by 31.2% across all Irish Gambit variations.
How sharp is the Irish Gambit?
Irish Gambit games are 96.6% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 24 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Irish Gambit a good opening family?
The Irish Gambit family is slightly favors black overall with a 30.6% (90% CI: 30.3%-30.9%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 1 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.