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Analyzer

Indian Defense: Polish Variation

30K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Indian Defense: Polish Variation leaves Black at 46.7% — pick a better weapon.

The minimum advantage of -7.5% means this line underperforms at the selected level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score46.7%Based on 30K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
40%46.7%55%
Range (90% confident): 46.3% – 47.2%
Min adv-7.5%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=30K
Outcome Distribution
2...b5
Indian Defense: Polish Variation
Analyzen=30K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.5%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 46.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.3% and 47.2%), based on 30K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~41%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.0% win rate (722 games)
  • 1000-1199: 41.3% win rate (797 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.5% win rate (1,113 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.5% win rate (1,555 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.2% win rate (2,350 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.9% win rate (3,878 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.2% win rate (7,464 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.4% win rate (9,510 games)
  • 2500+: 42.2% win rate (2,451 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (44%), worst in UltraBullet (29%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 28.9% win rate (21 games)
  • Bullet: 43.9% win rate (9,687 games)
  • Blitz: 44.4% win rate (17,172 games)
  • Rapid: 42.3% win rate (2,792 games)
  • Classical: 37.5% win rate (168 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.9% expected score (114 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (354 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (253 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 36.2% expected score (165 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (429 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (193 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (238 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (572 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (280 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (402 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (830 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (285 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (498 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (1,357 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (438 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (1,014 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (2,306 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (531 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (2,300 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (4,677 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (461 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (3,416 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (5,750 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (338 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (1,540 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (897 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Indian Defense
49.6%
Variations (5)
Indian Defense: Wade-Tartakower Defense
49.2%
Indian Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
Indian Defense: London System
50.8%
Indian Defense: Knights Variation
50.9%
Indian Defense: Budapest Defense
48.1%
Analyze Indian Defense: Polish Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate?

The Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 30K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Indian Defense: Polish Variation perform best?

The Indian Defense: Polish Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 54.8% win rate for white (1.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.2%) outperforms Classical (54.6%) by -2.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation?

The Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 51.1%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 722 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 52.1%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 797 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.7%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 52.8%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.3%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 9.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.4%-53.0%) win rate for white (9.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.1%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.9%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Indian Defense: Polish Variation has a 54.6% (90% CI: 48.3%-60.8%) win rate for white (168 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.

Is the Indian Defense: Polish Variation a good opening?

The Indian Defense: Polish Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.