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Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit

11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.7%Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 48.5%Based on 11K games
0%47.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 48.5%
Outcome Distribution
45.9%3.5%50.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Bg5
Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit
Analyzen=11K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 47.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.9% and 48.5%), based on 11K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +3.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 42% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.4% win rate (516 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.8% win rate (772 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.9% win rate (1,280 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.6% win rate (1,774 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.7% win rate (1,959 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.2% win rate (2,050 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.8% win rate (1,255 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.5% win rate (672 games)
  • 2500+: 49.8% win rate (504 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.2% win rate (20 games)
  • Bullet: 47.4% win rate (4,971 games)
  • Blitz: 45.4% win rate (4,482 games)
  • Rapid: 42.1% win rate (1,260 games)
  • Classical: 36.6% win rate (49 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.5% expected score (162 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (247 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.0% expected score (103 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (321 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (355 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (93 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (520 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (609 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (143 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (661 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (891 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (201 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (740 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (961 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (241 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (779 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (836 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (426 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (699 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (500 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (588 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (81 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (501 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Indian Defense
49.6%
Variations (5)
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Adorjan Gambit
47.8%
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Advance Variation
46.1%
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Alekhine Variation
48.6%
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Alekhine Variation, Leko Gambit
48.0%
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Basman-Williams Attack
48.4%
Analyze Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit win rate?

The Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 11K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit perform best?

The Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (672 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.4%) outperforms Rapid (42.1%) by 5.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit?

The Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 42.4% (90% CI: 38.9%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 516 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 45.8% (90% CI: 42.9%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 772 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 44.6%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 47.6% (90% CI: 45.7%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 45.7% (90% CI: 43.9%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 42.2% (90% CI: 40.4%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 44.8% (90% CI: 42.5%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 52.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 672 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 46.1%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 504 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.4% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.5%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.2%-46.6%) win rate for white (4.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit has a 42.1% (90% CI: 39.8%-44.3%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit a good opening?

The Indian Defense: Omega Gambit, Arafat Gambit is slightly favors black with a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.