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Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation

602K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation gives Black a 52.6% expected score — a strong choice.

Worst case (90% confidence) you keep a 4.8% advantage over the 50% baseline.

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Rating
Time
Black Expected Score52.6%Based on 602K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%52.6%60%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.7%
Min adv+4.8%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=602K
Outcome Distribution
4...d6
Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation
Analyzen=602K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 52.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 52.7%), based on 602K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 55% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 54.5% win rate (12,052 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.2% win rate (33,264 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.4% win rate (67,404 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.5% win rate (108,066 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.8% win rate (130,887 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.9% win rate (125,620 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.2% win rate (76,496 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.2% win rate (41,578 games)
  • 2500+: 45.4% win rate (6,641 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.7% win rate (3,332 games)
  • Bullet: 50.9% win rate (313,202 games)
  • Blitz: 50.0% win rate (234,358 games)
  • Rapid: 50.5% win rate (49,209 games)
  • Classical: 52.0% win rate (1,907 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (4,723 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (5,746 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (1,539 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (134 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (15,182 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (14,030 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (3,855 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (63 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (438 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (31,213 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (28,429 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (7,070 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (254 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (723 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (48,513 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (47,365 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (10,909 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (556 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (931 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (57,900 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (59,588 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (11,950 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (518 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (776 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (62,996 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (51,392 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (10,043 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (413 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (218 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (50,272 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (22,592 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (3,324 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (90 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (72 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (35,898 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (5,084 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (517 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (6,505 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (132 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Indian Defense
49.6%
Variations (5)
Indian Defense: Wade-Tartakower Defense
49.2%
Indian Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
Indian Defense: London System
50.8%
Indian Defense: Knights Variation
50.9%
Indian Defense: Budapest Defense
48.1%
Analyze Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate?

The Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 602K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation perform best?

The Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.3% win rate for white (6.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (48.5%) outperforms Classical (42.0%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation?

The Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 42.7% (90% CI: 42.0%-43.4%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.2%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 67K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 108K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 131K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.4%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 126K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-49.9%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.6%-45.9%) win rate for white (313K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.4%) win rate for white (234K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.8%-44.5%) win rate for white (49K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation has a 42.0% (90% CI: 40.2%-43.9%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

Is the Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation a good opening?

The Indian Defense: Colle System, King's Indian Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.