Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation
28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
44.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.0%.
Measured over 28K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 28K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 28K
- Best context
- 48.6% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 40.4% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.0%
- Draws
- 5.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.2% at 0-999, 45.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 34.5% expected score (92 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (54 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 18.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (345 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (205 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 24.3% expected score (51 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (730 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (1,289 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (172 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (1,540 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (5,007 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (695 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (56 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (1,856 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (7,596 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (1,163 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (36 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (1,679 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (4,073 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (526 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (412 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (430 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (30 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation scores 44.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.0% and 45.0% — from 28K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 28K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation win rate?
Playing the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation, Black wins 42.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 28K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation perform best?
The Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 46.5% (7.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.1% in Blitz (19K games) against 42.6% in Rapid (2.7K games).
How sharp is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation?
The Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 34.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 62.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.8%. It rests on 157 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.0%, draws 2.1% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 602 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.3%, draws 8.4% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 872 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 42.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games.
What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.3%, draws 5.5% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.
What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 39.3%, draws 6.5% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.
What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 40.4%, draws 10.2% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 111 Lichess games.
Is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation a good opening?
The Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Alekhine Variation, Abonyi Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.0% of its games and loses 53.0%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.