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Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation

722K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.1%Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 50.2%Based on 722K games
0%50.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 50.2%
Outcome Distribution
47.7%4.7%47.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nf3
Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation
Analyzen=722K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 50.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.0% and 50.2%), based on 722K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.8% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.0% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.0% win rate (1,408 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.8% win rate (5,970 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.3% win rate (23,074 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.9% win rate (70,217 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.8% win rate (155,195 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.1% win rate (232,130 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.4% win rate (167,902 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.9% win rate (59,473 games)
  • 2500+: 51.4% win rate (6,246 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.8% win rate (157 games)
  • Bullet: 48.1% win rate (165,058 games)
  • Blitz: 47.6% win rate (446,752 games)
  • Rapid: 47.3% win rate (105,013 games)
  • Classical: 45.8% win rate (4,635 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (815 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (475 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (117 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (2,894 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (2,652 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (409 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 69.6% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (8,854 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (12,315 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (1,852 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (20,376 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (40,639 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (8,893 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (272 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (46 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (31,822 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (97,138 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (24,762 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (1,427 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (40,155 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (151,417 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (38,397 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.9% expected score (2,146 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (35,266 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (106,657 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (25,302 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (668 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (20,403 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (33,774 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (5,196 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.0% expected score (91 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (4,473 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (1,685 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (85 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Indian Defense
49.6%
Variations (5)
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Adorjan Gambit
47.8%
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Advance Variation
46.1%
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Alekhine Variation
48.6%
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Alekhine Variation, Leko Gambit
48.0%
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Basman-Williams Attack
48.4%
Analyze Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate?

The Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 722K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation perform best?

The Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (59K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (55.8%) outperforms Classical (45.8%) by 10.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation?

The Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 43.8%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 70K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 155K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 232K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 168K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 55.8% (90% CI: 49.3%-62.3%) win rate for white (157 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.4%) win rate for white (165K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.7%) win rate for white (447K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.6%) win rate for white (105K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.6%-47.0%) win rate for white (4.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation a good opening?

The Indian Defense: Budapest Defense, Adler Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-47.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.