Hippopotamus Defense

1 variations · 151K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Hippopotamus Defense leaves Black at 46.2% — consider alternatives.

The minimum advantage of -8.1% suggests this opening underperforms statistically at your level.

You play

Tough Sell

Rating

Time

Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 46.4%Aggregated from 1 variations

0%46.2%100%

Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 46.4%

ContextOverall · n=151K

Outcome Distribution

44.3%3.7%52.0%

Win

Draw

Loss

3...f6

Hippopotamus Defense

Variations1

Games (Context)151K

Avg Length31 moves

Draw Rate3.7%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall

#1Hippopotamus DefenseTop Pick

1.e4 Nh6

Min adv -8.1% · n=151K

46.2%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Hippopotamus Defense family has a 46.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.0% and 46.4%), aggregated from 1 variations and 151K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~42%)

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Classical (34%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · Black expected scores

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (116 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (6,272 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (15,989 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (10,817 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (192 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (303 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (7,059 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (7,297 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (5,184 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (351 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (656 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (5,100 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (5,631 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (3,301 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (451 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (766 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (8,730 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (7,242 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 37.2% expected score (2,230 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 25.4% expected score (367 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (540 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (7,205 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (7,888 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (1,305 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (145 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (344 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (7,281 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (11,026 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (1,224 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (64 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (79 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (6,610 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (8,623 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (666 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (36 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (5,416 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (2,886 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (130 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 11.9% expected score (9 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (1,456 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (260 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (1)

Hippopotamus Defense151K games

Losing46.2%

Analyze Hippopotamus Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Hippopotamus Defense win rate?

The Hippopotamus Defense family has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.2%) win rate for white, aggregated from 1 variations and 151K rated games from Lichess.

How many Hippopotamus Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 1 Hippopotamus Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Hippopotamus Defense perform best?

The Hippopotamus Defense family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 55.8% win rate for white (20K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Hippopotamus Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (61.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.1%) by 13.0% across all Hippopotamus Defense variations.

How sharp is the Hippopotamus Defense?

Hippopotamus Defense games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Hippopotamus Defense a good opening family?

The Hippopotamus Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.2%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 1 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.