Hippopotamus Defense
1 variations · 151K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · Overall
46.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.4%.
Measured over 151K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 151K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- #55 of 62
- Games in this context
- 151K
- Best context
- 55.1% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 37.2% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Variations measured
- 1
- Average game length
- 31 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
Black · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.7% at 0-999, 42.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (116 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (6,272 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (15,989 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (10,817 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (192 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (303 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (7,059 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (7,297 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (5,184 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (351 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (656 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (5,100 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (5,631 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (3,301 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (451 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (766 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (8,730 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (7,242 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 37.2% expected score (2,230 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 25.4% expected score (367 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (540 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (7,205 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (7,888 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (1,305 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (145 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (344 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (7,281 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (11,026 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (1,224 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (64 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (79 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (6,610 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (8,623 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (666 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (36 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (5,416 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (2,886 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (130 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 11.9% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (1,456 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (260 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
1 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Hippopotamus Defense family scores 46.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.0% and 46.4% — from 151K Lichess games across 1 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 151K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Hippopotamus Defense win rate?
Across the Hippopotamus Defense's 1 variations, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 151K rated games from Lichess.
How many Hippopotamus Defense variations are there?
1 Hippopotamus Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Hippopotamus Defense perform best?
The Hippopotamus Defense family performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 51.6% (16K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Hippopotamus Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Hippopotamus Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.1% in Blitz (67K games) against 42.1% in Rapid (25K games).
How sharp is the Hippopotamus Defense?
Hippopotamus Defense games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Hippopotamus Defense a good opening family?
The Hippopotamus Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 44.3% and loses 52.0%. Results differ between its 1 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.