Carr Defense

2 variations · 986K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1...h6

Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

47.4%

40%55%

Floor47.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.5%.

Measured over 986K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.

Outcomes for Black

45.6%3.6%50.8%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 986K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here: #43 of 62
Games in this context: 986K
Best context: 59.0% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context: 39.6% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Variations measured: 2
Average game length: 34 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall

#1Carr DefenseBest here

1.e4 h6

Floor 47.4% · 973K games

47.4%

#2Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit

1.e4 h6 2.d4 e5

Floor 43.8% · 13K games

44.5%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.8% at 0-999, 41.5% at 2500+.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.0% expected score (758 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (25,118 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (30,080 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (10,130 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 32.2% expected score (136 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (1,695 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (40,503 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (48,054 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (14,508 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (461 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (3,363 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (57,693 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (80,416 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (23,581 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (1,118 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (3,530 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (76,492 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (95,224 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (30,834 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (1,916 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.2% expected score (1,216 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (72,467 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (87,314 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (27,044 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (1,341 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (395 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (77,257 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (46,785 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (21,294 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (415 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (245 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (44,635 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (16,193 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.6% expected score (2,679 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (44 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.2% expected score (124 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (26,054 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (4,657 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (319 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (8,354 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (1,257 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

2 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

Carr Defense973K games

Losing47.4%Floor 47.4%

Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit13K games

Losing44.5%Floor 43.8%

Analyze Carr Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Carr Defense family scores 47.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.3% and 47.5% — from 986K Lichess games across 2 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 986K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Carr Defense win rate?

Across the Carr Defense's 2 variations, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 986K rated games from Lichess.

How many Carr Defense variations are there?

2 Carr Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Carr Defense perform best?

The Carr Defense family performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 48.1% (166K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Carr Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Carr Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.7% in Blitz (410K games) against 45.7% in Rapid (130K games).

How sharp is the Carr Defense?

Carr Defense games are 96.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Carr Defense a good opening family?

The Carr Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 45.6% and loses 50.8%. Results differ between its 2 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.