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Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit

13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.5%

40%55%
Floor43.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.2%.

Measured over 13K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 13K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
13K
Best context
47.2% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
42.7% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −12.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.1% at 0-999, 40.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (439 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (666 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (272 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (693 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (1,253 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (582 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (572 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (1,582 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (814 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (636 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (1,376 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (680 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (70 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (472 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (772 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (457 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (49 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (430 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (311 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (177 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 36.6% expected score (129 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (84 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 36.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Carr Defense
50.8%
Analyze Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 44.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.8% and 45.2% — from 13K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
13K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate?

The Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 44.5% (range, 90% confident: 43.8% – 45.2%) for Black, based on 13K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit perform best?

The Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit performs best at 0-999, where it scores 46.6% for Black (1.4K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, Bullet (46.5%) outperforms Classical (43.8%). Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit?

The Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 46.6% (range, 90% confident: 44.4% – 48.8%) for Black, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 45.5% (range, 90% confident: 43.9% – 47.2%) for Black, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 44.1% (range, 90% confident: 42.6% – 45.5%) for Black, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 45.0% (range, 90% confident: 43.4% – 46.5%) for Black, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 43.2% (range, 90% confident: 41.2% – 45.1%) for Black, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 43.8% (range, 90% confident: 41.1% – 46.5%) for Black, based on 909 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 39.4% (range, 90% confident: 35.1% – 43.8%) for Black, based on 347 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 42.2% (range, 90% confident: 35.2% – 49.5%) for Black, based on 127 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 46.5% (range, 90% confident: 45.1% – 47.9%) for Black (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 44.5% (range, 90% confident: 43.5% – 45.6%) for Black (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 42.3% (range, 90% confident: 40.8% – 43.7%) for Black (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 43.8% (range, 90% confident: 37.6% – 50.1%) for Black (168 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

Is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit a good opening?

The Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White with a 53.8% (range, 90% confident: 53.1% – 54.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.