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Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit

13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.5%

40%55%
Floor43.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.2%.

Measured over 13K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 13K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
13K
Best context
47.2% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
42.8% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −12.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.1% at 0-999, 40.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (439 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (666 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (272 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (693 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (1,253 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (582 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (572 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (1,582 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (814 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (636 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (1,376 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (680 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (70 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (472 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (772 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (457 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (49 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (430 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (311 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (177 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 36.6% expected score (129 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (84 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 36.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Carr Defense
50.8%
Analyze Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores 44.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.8% and 45.2% — from 13K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
13K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate?

Playing the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit, Black wins 42.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 13K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit perform best?

The Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 46.6% (1.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 44.5% in Blitz (6.1K games) against 42.3% in Rapid (3.0K games).

How sharp is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit?

The Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 41.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 909 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 37.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 58.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.4%. It rests on 347 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.3%, draws 5.8% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 127 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 40.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games.

What is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 168 Lichess games.

Is the Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit a good opening?

The Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.8% of its games and loses 53.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.