Canard Opening

1 variations · 516K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

2.f4

Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · Overall

52.4%

45%60%

Floor52.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.5%.

Measured over 516K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong opening choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

50.2%4.3%45.5%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 516K games

Rank among the families White can choose here: #21 of 56
Games in this context: 516K
Best context: 55.8% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context: 37.3% at 1400-1599 Classical
Variations measured: 1
Average game length: 36 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

White · Overall

#1Canard OpeningBest here

1.d4 Nf6 2.f4

Floor 52.2% · 516K games

52.4%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.9% at 0-999, 59.7% at 2500+.

Rating	UB	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (3,104 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (9,341 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (4,270 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 26.1% expected score (34 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 26.2% expected score (32 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (4,906 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (10,367 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (4,647 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (130 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 33.8% expected score (54 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (8,200 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (14,977 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (6,257 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.1% expected score (321 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.2% expected score (77 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (18,565 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (32,518 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (8,529 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (618 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (68 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (29,501 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (69,209 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (16,789 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.1% expected score (914 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.7% expected score (38 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (30,645 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (98,846 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (21,546 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (799 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (28 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (30,762 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (48,671 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (11,154 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (128 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (16,000 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (9,454 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (1,000 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (3,511 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 68.9% expected score (78 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (10 games)

1 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

Canard Opening516K games

Winning52.4%Floor 52.2%

Analyze Canard Opening PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Canard Opening family scores 52.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.2% and 52.5% — from 516K Lichess games across 1 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 516K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Canard Opening win rate?

Across the Canard Opening's 1 variations, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 516K rated games from Lichess.

How many Canard Opening variations are there?

1 Canard Opening variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Canard Opening perform best?

The Canard Opening family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.1% (3.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Canard Opening better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Canard Opening scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.5% in Blitz (293K games) against 50.3% in Rapid (74K games).

How sharp is the Canard Opening?

Canard Opening games are 95.7% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 36 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Canard Opening a good opening family?

The Canard Opening family is good for White overall. Across its games, White wins 50.2% and loses 45.5%. Results differ between its 1 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.