Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit

77K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
4.c3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.3%

45%60%
Floor53.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.6%.

Measured over 77K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 2.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 77K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
77K
Best context
57.4% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Worst context
49.2% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
97.5%
Draws
2.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.5 · Trap factor: +10.1 · 77K games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 23.5% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.7% at 0-999, 35.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,244 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (1,079 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (406 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (2,965 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (3,490 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (733 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (4,631 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (7,475 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (1,689 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.0% expected score (229 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (6,702 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (9,377 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (2,953 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.3% expected score (141 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 65.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (7,322 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (8,431 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (2,442 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (102 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (4,974 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (4,794 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (1,039 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (2,047 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (1,290 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (234 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (917 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.8% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bishop's Opening
51.7%
Variations (5)
Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense
50.0%
Bishop's Opening: Boi Variation
52.7%
Bishop's Opening: Vienna Hybrid
51.3%
Bishop's Opening: Philidor Counterattack
51.1%
Bishop's Opening: Vienna Hybrid, Spielmann Attack
52.2%
Analyze Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit scores 53.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.0% and 53.6% — from 77K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
77K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate?

Playing the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit, White wins 52.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 77K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit perform best?

The Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 54.2% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.4% in Blitz (36K games) against 49.9% in Rapid (9.5K games).

How sharp is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit?

The Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.5 (very decisive), meaning 97.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.9%, draws 2.3% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 53.2%, draws 2.0% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 52.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 63.2%, draws 0.5% and loses 36.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.5%. It rests on 314 Lichess games.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 54.4%, draws 1.9% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 39.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 56.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 325 Lichess games.

Is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit a good opening?

The Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.0% of its games and loses 45.5%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.