Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation
1.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.3%.
Measured over 1.9K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.9K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.9K
- Best context
- 47.8% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.1%
- Draws
- 4.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.3% at 1000-1199, 57.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 27.9% expected score (55 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.3% expected score (75 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (87 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (318 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (34 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (148 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (521 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 29.1% expected score (32 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (277 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (270 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation scores 48.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.6% and 50.3% — from 1.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation win rate?
Playing the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation, White wins 46.0%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 1.9K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation perform best?
The Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 56.3% (562 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.8% in Blitz (1.2K games) against 42.5% in Rapid (91 games).
How sharp is the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation?
The Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 31.9%, draws 2.5% and loses 65.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.2%. It rests on 138 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 42.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 442 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 45.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 703 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.6%, draws 7.4% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 562 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 616 Lichess games.
What is the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 44.9%, draws 5.8% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
Is the Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation a good opening?
The Benko Gambit: Nd2 Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 46.0% of its games and loses 49.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.