Barnes Opening
5 variations · 2.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · Overall
47.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 2.7M games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.7M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- #48 of 56
- Games in this context
- 2.7M
- Best context
- 54.1% at 2200-2499 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 29.1% at 0-999 Classical
- Variations measured
- 5
- Average game length
- 34 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
White · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 39.1% at 0-999, 47.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (1,447 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (51,712 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (93,748 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (46,124 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 29.1% expected score (788 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (4,431 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (66,550 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (89,676 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (35,734 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (1,324 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (8,285 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (114,561 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (106,585 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (31,069 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (2,613 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (19,001 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (179,734 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (102,508 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (27,931 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.6% expected score (2,784 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.7% expected score (19,804 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (271,148 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (118,488 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (18,791 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (2,076 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (17,975 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (345,922 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (121,231 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (17,432 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (554 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (10,876 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (342,140 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (73,633 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (4,715 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (71 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (2,150 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (272,318 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (35,469 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,026 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (63 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (44,169 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (5,423 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.3% expected score (223 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
5 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Barnes Opening family scores 47.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.8% and 47.9% — from 2.7M Lichess games across 5 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.7M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Barnes Opening win rate?
Across the Barnes Opening's 5 variations, White wins 46.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 2.7M rated games from Lichess.
How many Barnes Opening variations are there?
5 Barnes Opening variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Barnes Opening perform best?
The Barnes Opening family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 50.7% (50K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Barnes Opening better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Barnes Opening scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.3% in Blitz (747K games) against 41.8% in Rapid (183K games).
How sharp is the Barnes Opening?
Barnes Opening games are 96.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Barnes Opening a good opening family?
The Barnes Opening family is hard work for White — it favours Black overall. Across its games, White wins 46.1% and loses 50.3%. Results differ between its 5 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.