What is the Barnes Opening expected score for White?
Snapshot
Overall, the Barnes Opening family has a 47.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 47.9%), aggregated from 5 variations and 2.7M Lichess games.
Barnes Opening
5 variations · 2.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Barnes Opening leaves White at 47.9% — consider alternatives.
The minimum advantage of -4.4% suggests this opening underperforms statistically at your level.
You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 47.9%Aggregated from 5 variations
0%47.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 47.9%
ContextOverall · n=2.7M
Outcome Distribution
46.1%3.6%50.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
1.f3
Barnes Opening
Variations5
Games (Context)2.7M
Avg Length34 moves
Draw Rate3.6%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
White Win% by Rating
Improves with rating: 40% → 48%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 39.7% win rate (193,819 games)
- 1000-1199: 43.8% win rate (197,715 games)
- 1200-1399: 44.9% win rate (263,113 games)
- 1400-1599: 44.4% win rate (331,958 games)
- 1600-1799: 47.2% win rate (430,307 games)
- 1800-1999: 47.4% win rate (503,114 games)
- 2000-2199: 48.0% win rate (431,435 games)
- 2200-2499: 47.9% win rate (310,970 games)
- 2500+: 47.6% win rate (49,881 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Classical (34%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 48.6% win rate (84,032 games)
- Bullet: 47.7% win rate (1,688,254 games)
- Blitz: 44.0% win rate (746,761 games)
- Rapid: 39.1% win rate (183,045 games)
- Classical: 34.3% win rate (10,220 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · White expected scores
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (1,447 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (51,712 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (93,748 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (46,124 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 29.1% expected score (788 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (4,431 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (66,550 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (89,676 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (35,734 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (1,324 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (8,285 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (114,561 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (106,585 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (31,069 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (2,613 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (19,001 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (179,734 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (102,508 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (27,931 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.6% expected score (2,784 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.7% expected score (19,804 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (271,148 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (118,488 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (18,791 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (2,076 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (17,975 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (345,922 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (121,231 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (17,432 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (554 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (10,876 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (342,140 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (73,633 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (4,715 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (71 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (2,150 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (272,318 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (35,469 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,026 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (63 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (44,169 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (5,423 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.3% expected score (223 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (5)
Analyze Barnes Opening PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Barnes Opening win rate?
The Barnes Opening family has a 46.1% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.1%) win rate for white, aggregated from 5 variations and 2.7M rated games from Lichess.
How many Barnes Opening variations are there?
This analysis covers 5 Barnes Opening variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Barnes Opening perform best?
The Barnes Opening family performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 48.0% win rate for white (431K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Barnes Opening better in blitz or rapid?
UltraBullet (48.6%) outperforms Classical (34.3%) by 14.3% across all Barnes Opening variations.
How sharp is the Barnes Opening?
Barnes Opening games are 96.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Barnes Opening a good opening family?
The Barnes Opening family is slightly favors black overall with a 46.1% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.1%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 5 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.