Amazon Attack

2 variations · 584K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

2.Qd3

Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · Overall

47.5%

40%55%

Floor47.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.6%.

Measured over 584K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.

Outcomes for White

45.5%4.0%50.5%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 584K games

Rank among the families White can choose here: #50 of 56
Games in this context: 584K
Best context: 56.3% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context: 36.4% at 0-999 Classical
Variations measured: 2
Average game length: 31 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

White · Overall

#1Amazon Attack: Siberian AttackBest here

1.d4 Nf6 2.Nc3 d5 3.Qd3

Floor 50.0% · 90K games

50.3%

#2Amazon Attack

1.d4 d5 2.Qd3

Floor 47.0% · 494K games

47.1%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.0% at 0-999, 50.2% at 2500+.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499					—
2500+					—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (220 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (24,608 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (91,980 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (56,073 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 36.4% expected score (621 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.7% expected score (162 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (23,192 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (56,031 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (37,095 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (1,658 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 34.9% expected score (173 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (18,745 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (45,561 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (22,963 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (5,122 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 37.4% expected score (253 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (25,948 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (33,532 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (16,570 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (2,054 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (156 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (16,667 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (31,672 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (6,710 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (363 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (41 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (14,728 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (12,750 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (5,626 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (141 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (20,837 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (5,029 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (780 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (29 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (4,323 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (1,277 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (43 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (409 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (73 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

2 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

Amazon Attack: Siberian Attack90K games

Balanced50.3%Floor 50.0%

Amazon Attack494K games

Losing47.1%Floor 47.0%

Analyze Amazon Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Amazon Attack family scores 47.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.4% and 47.6% — from 584K Lichess games across 2 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 584K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Amazon Attack win rate?

Across the Amazon Attack's 2 variations, White wins 45.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 584K rated games from Lichess.

How many Amazon Attack variations are there?

2 Amazon Attack variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Amazon Attack perform best?

The Amazon Attack family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.8% (486 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Amazon Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Amazon Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.1% in Blitz (278K games) against 45.2% in Rapid (146K games).

How sharp is the Amazon Attack?

Amazon Attack games are 96.0% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Amazon Attack a good opening family?

The Amazon Attack family is hard work for White — it favours Black overall. Across its games, White wins 45.5% and loses 50.5%. Results differ between its 2 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.