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Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit

38K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score48.5%Range (90% confident): 48.1% – 48.9%Based on 38K games
0%48.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.1% – 48.9%
Outcome Distribution
46.5%4.0%49.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Be2
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit
Analyzen=38K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 48.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.1% and 48.9%), based on 38K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +0.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.2% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 42% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.6% win rate (67 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.4% win rate (420 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.9% win rate (1,495 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.6% win rate (5,163 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.8% win rate (10,279 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.8% win rate (12,039 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.8% win rate (6,547 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.9% win rate (2,239 games)
  • 2500+: 52.9% win rate (211 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 49.0% win rate (12,212 games)
  • Blitz: 45.5% win rate (20,892 games)
  • Rapid: 44.8% win rate (5,141 games)
  • Classical: 40.8% win rate (213 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (233 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (167 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 68.6% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (634 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (777 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (84 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (1,941 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (2,808 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (401 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (3,000 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (5,921 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (1,272 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (84 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (2,946 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (6,865 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (2,147 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.5% expected score (81 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (2,300 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (3,214 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (999 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (957 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,074 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (207 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (157 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Balogh Variation
48.3%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation
50.9%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation, Everglades Variation
53.3%
Alekhine Defense: Buckley Attack
49.7%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 38K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.0%) outperforms Classical (40.8%) by 8.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 50.4% (90% CI: 46.4%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 420 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.8%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.1%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 52.9% (90% CI: 47.3%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 211 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.7%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.1%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 44.8% (90% CI: 43.7%-46.0%) win rate for white (5.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit has a 40.8% (90% CI: 35.3%-46.3%) win rate for white (213 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit is statistically balanced with a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.