13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 51.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.6% and 52.0%), based on 13K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 62% → 50%
Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Classical (40%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 13K rated games from Lichess.
The Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (1.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (50.3%) outperforms Classical (40.4%) by 9.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 43.7%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 106 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 39.7%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 340 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.2%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 917 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 49.9%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 45.3%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 314 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.8%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.
In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.0%) win rate for white (8.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.
In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.2%-51.1%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.
In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation has a 40.4% (90% CI: 33.6%-47.3%) win rate for white (136 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.
The Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.