Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit
299 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
41.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.6%.
Measured over 299 games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 299 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 299
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.4% at 0-999, 30.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 37.8% expected score (23 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (32 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (28 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (25 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit scores 41.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 37.2% and 46.6% — from 299 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 299+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit win rate?
Playing the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit, Black wins 39.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 299 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit perform best?
The Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 45.7% (68 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit?
The Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 123 Lichess games.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 36.8%, draws 7.5% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.6%. It rests on 125 Lichess games.
Is the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit a good opening?
The Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 39.4% of its games and loses 55.7%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.