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Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit

299 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score41.9%Range (90% confident): 37.2% – 46.6%Based on 299 games
0%41.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 37.2% – 46.6%
Outcome Distribution
39.4%4.8%55.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...b5
Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit
Analyzen=299
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit has a 41.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 37.2% and 46.6%), based on 299 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 55% → 20%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 54.8% win rate (14 games)
  • 1000-1199: 34.3% win rate (32 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.5% win rate (64 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.9% win rate (68 games)
  • 1600-1799: 38.6% win rate (62 games)
  • 1800-1999: 27.3% win rate (26 games)
  • 2000-2199: 30.2% win rate (20 games)
  • 2200-2499: 33.3% win rate (12 games)
  • 2500+: 20.0% win rate (1 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (43%), worst in UltraBullet (14%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid

  • UltraBullet: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 43.0% win rate (123 games)
  • Blitz: 36.8% win rate (125 games)
  • Rapid: 38.6% win rate (49 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 37.8% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (25 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Zukertort Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Zukertort Opening: Tennison Gambit
48.2%
Zukertort Opening: Queen's Gambit Invitation
51.7%
Zukertort Opening: Sicilian Invitation
49.9%
Zukertort Opening: Kingside Fianchetto
49.3%
Zukertort Opening: Slav Invitation
50.4%
Analyze Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit win rate?

The Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 299 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit perform best?

The Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (68 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (55.7%) outperforms Bullet (54.2%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit?

The Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit has a 54.2% (90% CI: 46.9%-61.5%) win rate for white (123 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-62.9%) win rate for white (125 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit a good opening?

The Zukertort Opening: Shabalov Gambit is statistically favors white with a 55.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-60.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.