Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly
58K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.9%.
Measured over 58K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 58K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 58K
- Best context
- 54.9% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.8% at 0-999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.3%
- Draws
- 4.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.2% at 0-999, 56.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (406 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (1,360 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (742 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (739 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (1,310 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (1,479 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (2,207 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (2,918 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,063 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (62 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,954 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (3,970 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (1,452 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (201 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (3,678 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (4,880 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (1,882 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (167 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (2,824 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (8,510 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (2,390 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (125 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (2,121 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (4,896 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (1,113 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 71.2% expected score (34 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (1,146 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (2,642 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (452 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (533 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (480 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (44 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly scores 52.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.3% and 52.9% — from 58K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 58K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate?
Playing the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 58K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly perform best?
The Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.6% (4.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.7% in Blitz (31K games) against 52.3% in Rapid (11K games).
How sharp is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly?
The Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 41.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 7.6K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.1%, draws 5.5% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.1%, draws 6.9% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 40.3%, draws 25.4% and loses 34.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 49.7%, draws 6.3% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 639 Lichess games.
Is the Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly a good opening?
The Zukertort Opening: Santasiere's Folly is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.2% of its games and loses 45.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.