Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense
108K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.9%.
Measured over 108K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 108K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 108K
- Best context
- 47.7% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.4% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.4%
- Draws
- 4.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.3% at 0-999, 41.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (18 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.4% expected score (1,506 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (4,582 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (2,480 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (39 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (50 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (1,395 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (3,841 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (1,798 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (101 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (110 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (2,419 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (4,102 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (1,839 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (151 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (247 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (4,236 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (4,990 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (1,877 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (264 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (323 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (4,392 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (6,201 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (1,728 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.4% expected score (145 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (271 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (6,029 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (7,440 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (1,359 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (79 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (103 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (6,896 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (9,866 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (1,142 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (41 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (82 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (9,336 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (10,574 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (851 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (3,220 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (1,389 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 28.9% expected score (34 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense scores 45.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.4% and 45.9% — from 108K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 108K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate?
Playing the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense, Black wins 43.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 108K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense perform best?
The Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 47.0% (18K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.9% in Blitz (53K games) against 43.9% in Rapid (13K games).
How sharp is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense?
The Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 40.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 41.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.2%, draws 6.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.2%, draws 7.5% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 43.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 39K Lichess games.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 53K Lichess games.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.8%, draws 6.1% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 37.4%, draws 6.3% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.6%. It rests on 831 Lichess games.
Is the Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense a good opening?
The Zukertort Opening: Polish Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.3% of its games and loses 52.0%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.