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Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense

2.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.3%Range (90% confident): 48.2% – 48.3%Based on 2.8M games
0%48.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.2% – 48.3%
Outcome Distribution
46.2%4.1%49.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...Nc6
Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense
Analyzen=2.8M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 48.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.2% and 48.3%), based on 2.8M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.8% win rate (174,282 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.1% win rate (267,307 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.8% win rate (389,786 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.7% win rate (501,062 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.5% win rate (503,643 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.5% win rate (411,165 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.4% win rate (275,600 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.8% win rate (180,103 games)
  • 2500+: 44.0% win rate (56,876 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.6% win rate (57,033 games)
  • Bullet: 46.6% win rate (956,101 games)
  • Blitz: 46.0% win rate (1,271,278 games)
  • Rapid: 46.0% win rate (454,823 games)
  • Classical: 46.2% win rate (20,589 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (423 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (41,491 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (89,422 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (42,537 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (409 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (1,801 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (68,194 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (139,453 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (56,461 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (1,398 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (3,929 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (103,621 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (197,633 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (81,499 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (3,104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (10,303 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (134,169 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (249,092 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (100,768 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (6,730 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (17,786 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (138,460 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (248,773 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (92,859 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (5,765 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (15,454 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (146,812 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (188,183 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (58,016 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (2,700 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.2% expected score (5,697 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (134,981 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (115,495 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (19,011 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.2% expected score (416 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (1,412 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (135,789 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (39,220 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (3,615 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (228 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (52,584 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (4,007 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (57 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Zukertort Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Zukertort Opening: Tennison Gambit
48.2%
Zukertort Opening: Queen's Gambit Invitation
51.7%
Zukertort Opening: Sicilian Invitation
49.9%
Zukertort Opening: Kingside Fianchetto
49.3%
Zukertort Opening: Slav Invitation
50.4%
Analyze Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate?

The Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.8M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense perform best?

The Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (180K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (52.1%) outperforms Classical (48.0%) by 4.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense?

The Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 174K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 267K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 390K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 501K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 504K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 411K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 276K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 180K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.5%) win rate for white (57K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate for white (956K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.7%) win rate for white (1.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.1%) win rate for white (455K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.6%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense a good opening?

The Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense is statistically balanced with a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.