TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation

9.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.2%Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 50.1%Based on 9.2K games
0%49.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 50.1%
Outcome Distribution
47.9%2.6%49.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nf7
Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation
Analyzen=9.2K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.6%

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 49.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.4% and 50.1%), based on 9.2K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~56%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.6% win rate (127 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.8% win rate (495 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.1% win rate (1,828 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.7% win rate (1,509 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.6% win rate (2,401 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (1,840 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.2% win rate (566 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.8% win rate (314 games)
  • 2500+: 54.4% win rate (117 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (52%), worst in Blitz (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.4% win rate (87 games)
  • Bullet: 47.8% win rate (5,028 games)
  • Blitz: 46.9% win rate (3,277 games)
  • Rapid: 52.3% win rate (751 games)
  • Classical: 47.7% win rate (54 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (33 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 60.7% expected score (69 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (307 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (116 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (69 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,260 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (426 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (139 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (555 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (757 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (186 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (1,075 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (198 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (22 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (34 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,222 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (448 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.6% expected score (110 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 66.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (277 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (247 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 65.6% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (185 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (123 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (101 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 87.2% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Zukertort Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Zukertort Opening: Ampel Variation
45.7%
Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense
51.8%
Zukertort Opening: Basman Defense
51.4%
Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense
49.7%
Zukertort Opening: Double Fianchetto Attack
48.6%
Analyze Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation perform best?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 55.6% win rate for white (127 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.3%) outperforms Classical (47.7%) by 4.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-62.8%) win rate for white, based on 127 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 43.2%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 495 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.2%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 45.6%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 44.9%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.2%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 47.7%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 566 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 42.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 314 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 46.9%-61.9%) win rate for white, based on 117 Lichess games. Average game length is 50 moves with a 10.5% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.0%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.5%-48.4%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 49.3%-55.3%) win rate for white (751 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation a good opening?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.