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Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation

9.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.8%

45%55%
Floor49.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.7%.

Measured over 9.2K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.2K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
9.2K
Best context
53.8% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
50.7% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
97.4%
Draws
2.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.6% at 0-999, 29.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.4% expected score (69 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (307 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (116 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (69 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (1,260 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (426 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (139 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (555 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (757 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (186 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,075 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (198 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (34 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,222 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (448 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 37.5% expected score (110 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 33.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (277 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (247 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (185 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (123 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (101 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 12.9% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Zukertort Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Zukertort Opening: Tennison Gambit
48.2%
Zukertort Opening: Queen's Gambit Invitation
51.7%
Zukertort Opening: Sicilian Invitation
49.9%
Zukertort Opening: Kingside Fianchetto
49.3%
Zukertort Opening: Slav Invitation
50.4%
Analyze Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation scores 50.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.9% and 51.7% — from 9.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
9.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate?

Playing the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation, Black wins 49.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 9.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation perform best?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 52.1% (2.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.3% in Blitz (3.3K games) against 45.4% in Rapid (751 games).

How sharp is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 39.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 55.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 127 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.9%, draws 2.3% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 495 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.4%, draws 1.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.2%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 566 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 314 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 35.0%, draws 10.5% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.3%. It rests on 117 Lichess games, which average 50 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 50.5%, draws 1.7% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 751 Lichess games.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation a good opening?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.5% of its games and loses 47.9%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.