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Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense

399K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.3%

40%55%
Floor46.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.5%.

Measured over 399K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 399K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
399K
Best context
53.1% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
Worst context
37.2% at 1600-1799 Classical
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 51.6%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (108 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (8,807 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (34,243 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (13,583 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (157 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (512 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (10,555 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (35,054 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (16,639 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (594 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (1,184 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (14,490 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (32,046 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (16,760 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (1,216 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (3,580 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (19,137 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (24,439 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (10,932 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (1,312 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (4,949 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (20,106 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (15,938 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (4,766 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.2% expected score (633 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (4,266 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (21,010 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (11,391 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (2,319 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (162 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (1,596 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (21,596 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7,141 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (610 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 26.8% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 36.3% expected score (214 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (23,455 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (4,718 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (148 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (7,663 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.0% expected score (653 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Zukertort Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Zukertort Opening: Tennison Gambit
48.2%
Zukertort Opening: Queen's Gambit Invitation
51.7%
Zukertort Opening: Sicilian Invitation
49.9%
Zukertort Opening: Kingside Fianchetto
49.3%
Zukertort Opening: Slav Invitation
50.4%
Continuations (1)
Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation
47.9%
Analyze Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense scores 46.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.2% and 46.5% — from 399K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
399K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate?

Playing the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Black wins 44.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 399K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense perform best?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 48.8% (57K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.1% in Blitz (166K games) against 45.4% in Rapid (66K games).

How sharp is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 66K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 59K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 147K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 166K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 66K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense a good opening?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.4% of its games and loses 51.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.