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Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense

399K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.3%Range (90% confident): 46.2% – 46.5%Based on 399K games
0%46.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.2% – 46.5%
Outcome Distribution
44.4%3.8%51.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...f6
Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense
Analyzen=399K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 46.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.2% and 46.5%), based on 399K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.5% win rate (56,898 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.2% win rate (63,354 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.0% win rate (65,696 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.3% win rate (59,400 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.0% win rate (46,392 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.3% win rate (39,148 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.5% win rate (30,963 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.6% win rate (28,540 games)
  • 2500+: 40.2% win rate (8,337 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.5% win rate (16,423 games)
  • Bullet: 45.6% win rate (146,819 games)
  • Blitz: 43.9% win rate (165,623 games)
  • Rapid: 43.0% win rate (65,764 games)
  • Classical: 41.9% win rate (4,099 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (108 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (8,807 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (34,243 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (13,583 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (157 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (512 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (10,555 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (35,054 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (16,639 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (594 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (1,184 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (14,490 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (32,046 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (16,760 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (1,216 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (3,580 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (19,137 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (24,439 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (10,932 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (1,312 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (4,949 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (20,106 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (15,938 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (4,766 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.2% expected score (633 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (4,266 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (21,010 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (11,391 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (2,319 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (162 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (1,596 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (21,596 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7,141 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (610 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 26.8% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 36.3% expected score (214 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (23,455 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (4,718 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (148 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (7,663 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.0% expected score (653 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Zukertort Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Zukertort Opening: Tennison Gambit
48.2%
Zukertort Opening: Queen's Gambit Invitation
51.7%
Zukertort Opening: Sicilian Invitation
49.9%
Zukertort Opening: Kingside Fianchetto
49.3%
Zukertort Opening: Slav Invitation
50.4%
Continuations (1)
Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense, Drunken Knight Variation
47.9%
Analyze Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 399K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense perform best?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.9% win rate for white (8.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.2%) outperforms Bullet (51.5%) by 0.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 66K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.0%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.9%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.7%) win rate for white (147K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.0%) win rate for white (166K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.5%) win rate for white (66K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-54.2%) win rate for white (4.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense a good opening?

The Zukertort Opening: Arctic Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.