Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation

12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
2...c5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

34.7%

30%55%
Floor34.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 35.4%.

Measured over 12K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 12K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
12K
Best context
42.4% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
28.7% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Average game length
28 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 16.1% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.9% at 0-999, 50.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.1% expected score (980 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 33.6% expected score (1,427 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.6% expected score (890 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 25.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.8% expected score (676 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.1% expected score (778 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 28.5% expected score (445 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 27.3% expected score (49 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 33.6% expected score (396 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 28.7% expected score (641 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 20.5% expected score (403 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 15.0% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 38.1% expected score (662 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 35.0% expected score (683 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 23.6% expected score (420 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 12.3% expected score (82 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (610 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (560 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 32.5% expected score (250 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (345 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (747 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (144 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (140 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (344 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (52 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (141 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (139 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 20.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (59 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (22 games)

Related Openings

Variations (1)
Zukertort Defense: Kingside Variation
48.6%
Analyze Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation scores 34.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 34.0% and 35.4% — from 12K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
12K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation win rate?

Playing the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation, Black wins 32.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 63.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.7%. It rests on 12K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation perform best?

The Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 47.3% (540 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 35.4% in Blitz (5.3K games) against 28.6% in Rapid (2.6K games).

How sharp is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation?

The Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 31.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 63.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.8%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 28.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 68.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 29.9%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 26.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 71.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 27.4%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 30.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 66.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 32.4%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 36.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 58.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.8%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.1%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 540 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.7%, draws 4.9% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 292 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 37.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 60.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.6%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 33.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 62.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.4%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 25.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 68.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 28.6%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 18.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 76.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 21.1%. It rests on 232 Lichess games.

Is the Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation a good opening?

The Zukertort Defense: Sicilian Knight Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 32.8% of its games and loses 63.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.