Wade Defense

1 variations · 238K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

2...Bg4

Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

47.2%

40%55%

Floor47.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.4%.

Measured over 238K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.

Outcomes for Black

44.5%5.3%50.2%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 5.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 238K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here: #48 of 62
Games in this context: 238K
Best context: 50.6% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Worst context: 42.8% at 2500+ Blitz
Variations measured: 1
Average game length: 37 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall

#1Wade DefenseBest here

1.d4 d6 2.Nf3 Bg4

Floor 47.0% · 238K games

47.2%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.0% at 0-999, 39.9% at 2500+.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (1,612 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (3,707 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (1,271 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (98 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (2,826 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (7,457 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (2,217 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (45 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (369 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,654 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (12,696 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (4,445 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (153 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (633 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (6,341 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (17,951 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (6,614 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (424 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (1,031 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (8,765 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (19,062 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (7,400 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (451 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (1,021 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (10,989 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (19,339 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (6,385 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (347 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.1% expected score (530 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (13,656 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (21,835 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (2,642 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (94 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.3% expected score (120 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (14,667 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (26,172 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (1,143 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 33.7% expected score (20 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (5,037 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (3,407 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 33.6% expected score (41 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (3 games)

1 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

Wade Defense238K games

Losing47.2%Floor 47.0%

Analyze Wade Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Wade Defense family scores 47.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.0% and 47.4% — from 238K Lichess games across 1 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 238K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Wade Defense win rate?

Across the Wade Defense's 1 variations, Black wins 44.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 238K rated games from Lichess.

How many Wade Defense variations are there?

1 Wade Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Wade Defense perform best?

The Wade Defense family performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 47.7% (42K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Wade Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Wade Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.6% in Blitz (132K games) against 46.3% in Rapid (32K games).

How sharp is the Wade Defense?

Wade Defense games are 94.7% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 37 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Wade Defense a good opening family?

The Wade Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 44.5% and loses 50.2%. Results differ between its 1 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.