3.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 51.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.9% and 52.6%), based on 3.8K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 51% → 36%
Best in Rapid (51%), worst in Classical (47%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K rated games from Lichess.
The Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 62.2% win rate for white (128 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (48.5%) outperforms Rapid (43.6%) by 4.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 40.2% (90% CI: 35.0%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 231 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 44.5% (90% CI: 40.6%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 454 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 43.2% (90% CI: 40.0%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 629 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 43.4% (90% CI: 40.4%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 726 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 47.1%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 864 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 609 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 62.2% (90% CI: 55.1%-69.0%) win rate for white, based on 128 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 45.8%-51.3%) win rate for white (890 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.
In Blitz games, the Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.4%-48.9%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.
In Rapid games, the Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 43.6% (90% CI: 40.4%-46.9%) win rate for white (616 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
The Vienna Gambit, with Max Lange Defense: Steinitz Gambit, Paulsen Defense is slightly favors black with a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.