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Valencia Opening

1 variations · 245K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
2.Nd2
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · Overall

51.5%

45%55%
Floor51.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.6%.

Measured over 245K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 245K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
#34 of 56
Games in this context
245K
Best context
58.9% at 2000-2199 UltraBullet
Worst context
43.8% at 1600-1799 Classical
Variations measured
1
Average game length
35 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

White · Overall
#1Valencia OpeningBest here
1.d3 e5 2.Nd2
Floor 51.3% · 245K games
51.5%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.8% at 0-999, 56.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (40 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,043 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (3,167 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (1,370 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (145 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (4,331 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (5,097 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (1,626 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (627 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (11,144 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (8,388 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (2,328 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (58 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (1,888 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (18,666 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (11,741 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (2,286 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (1,875 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (3,769 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (26,446 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (15,270 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (2,317 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (904 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (1,583 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (25,881 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (16,075 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (1,795 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (411 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.9% expected score (592 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (24,971 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (10,142 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (1,725 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (40 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (880 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (25,389 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (3,082 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (204 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (6,768 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (112 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 72.3% expected score (3 games)

1 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Valencia Opening245K games
51.5%Floor 51.3%
Analyze Valencia Opening PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Valencia Opening family scores 51.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.3% and 51.6% — from 245K Lichess games across 1 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
245K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Valencia Opening win rate?

Across the Valencia Opening's 1 variations, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 245K rated games from Lichess.

How many Valencia Opening variations are there?

1 Valencia Opening variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Valencia Opening perform best?

The Valencia Opening family performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.2% (30K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Valencia Opening better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Valencia Opening scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.6% in Blitz (73K games) against 50.0% in Rapid (14K games).

How sharp is the Valencia Opening?

Valencia Opening games are 96.8% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Valencia Opening a good opening family?

The Valencia Opening family is about level overall. Across its games, White wins 49.9% and loses 46.9%. Results differ between its 1 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.