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Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation

5.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.4%Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 50.6%Based on 5.2K games
0%49.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 50.6%
Outcome Distribution
45.3%8.2%46.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...e5
Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation
Analyzen=5.2K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate8.2%

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 49.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.3% and 50.6%), based on 5.2K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 37%

0
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1200-1399: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1400-1599: 33.3% win rate (9 games)
  • 1600-1799: 56.5% win rate (33 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.2% win rate (167 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.7% win rate (990 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.7% win rate (3,105 games)
  • 2500+: 37.4% win rate (941 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (27%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 46.6% win rate (1,251 games)
  • Blitz: 45.6% win rate (3,737 games)
  • Rapid: 35.4% win rate (229 games)
  • Classical: 27.0% win rate (30 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399————
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 69.2% expected score (22 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 40.8% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (116 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (146 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (783 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (55 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (679 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (2,286 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (385 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (525 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Slav Defense
50.8%
Variations (5)
Slav Defense: Exchange Variation
50.4%
Slav Defense: Three Knights Variation
51.1%
Slav Defense: Modern Line
51.9%
Slav Defense: Quiet Variation, Pin Defense
49.6%
Slav Defense: Slav Gambit, Alekhine Attack
52.8%
Continuations (1)
Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation
41.4%
Analyze Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate?

The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.3%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation perform best?

The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.5% win rate for white (941 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (53.1%) outperforms Blitz (46.0%) by 7.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation?

The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 91.8 (decisive), meaning 91.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 43.2%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 167 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 41.7%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 990 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.1%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 48.8%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 941 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 11.1% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 44.8%-49.5%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.6%-47.3%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 47.7%-58.5%) win rate for white (229 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.5%.

Is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation a good opening?

The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.3%-47.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.