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Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line

28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 53.7%Based on 28K games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 53.7%
Outcome Distribution
43.4%19.5%37.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bd2
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line
Analyzen=28K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness81%
Draw Rate19.5%

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 53.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.7% and 53.7%), based on 28K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.7% · Blitz best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 24%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.2% win rate (145 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.6% win rate (290 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.8% win rate (434 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.1% win rate (565 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.4% win rate (991 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.1% win rate (2,582 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.8% win rate (5,949 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.1% win rate (9,668 games)
  • 2500+: 24.3% win rate (7,476 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (47%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 38.2% win rate (8,107 games)
  • Blitz: 46.7% win rate (17,175 games)
  • Rapid: 39.2% win rate (2,459 games)
  • Classical: 33.0% win rate (358 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (37 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (170 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (66 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (77 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (217 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (138 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (132 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (278 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (142 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (271 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (523 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (174 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (674 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,607 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (269 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (1,109 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (4,373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (423 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,014 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (7,080 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (552 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (3,742 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (2,854 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (660 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (220 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Semi-Slav Defense
51.5%
Variations (5)
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Meran Variation
50.4%
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Move Order
50.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit
48.2%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit
54.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Bogoljubov Variation
51.5%
Analyze Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 43.4% (90% CI: 42.9%-43.9%) win rate for white, based on 28K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line perform best?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.1% win rate for white (9.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (46.7%) outperforms Classical (33.0%) by 13.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a sharpness score of 80.5 (moderately decisive), meaning 80.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 50.2% (90% CI: 43.4%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 145 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 51.6% (90% CI: 46.8%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 290 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 48.8% (90% CI: 44.9%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 434 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 48.1% (90% CI: 44.7%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 565 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 45.4% (90% CI: 42.8%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 991 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 9.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 24.3% (90% CI: 23.5%-25.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 50 moves with a 58.2% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 38.2% (90% CI: 37.4%-39.1%) win rate for white (8.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 30.1%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.3%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.9%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 39.2% (90% CI: 37.6%-40.9%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 26.0%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a 33.0% (90% CI: 28.9%-37.1%) win rate for white (358 Lichess games). Draw rate is 50.2%.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line a good opening?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 43.4% (90% CI: 42.9%-43.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.