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Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation

14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.5%Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 49.2%Based on 14K games
0%48.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 49.2%
Outcome Distribution
35.7%25.5%38.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
11.g3
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation
Analyzen=14K
Avg Length42 moves
Sharpness75%
Draw Rate25.5%

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation has a 48.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 49.2%), based on 14K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 19.5% · Blitz best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 20% → 17%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
  • 1400-1599: 58.1% win rate (20 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.1% win rate (80 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.3% win rate (600 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.8% win rate (2,685 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.0% win rate (5,547 games)
  • 2500+: 17.3% win rate (4,782 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (42%), worst in Classical (22%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 26.6% win rate (4,912 games)
  • Blitz: 41.8% win rate (7,784 games)
  • Rapid: 34.4% win rate (869 games)
  • Classical: 22.3% win rate (153 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399————
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 61.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (136 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (432 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (374 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (2,142 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (152 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (1,444 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (3,788 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (303 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (2,920 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (1,380 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (371 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (111 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Semi-Slav Defense
51.5%
Variations (5)
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Meran Variation
50.4%
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Move Order
50.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit
48.2%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit
54.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Bogoljubov Variation
51.5%
Analyze Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation has a 35.7% (90% CI: 35.0%-36.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation perform best?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 46.0% win rate for white (5.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (41.8%) outperforms Classical (22.3%) by 19.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation has a sharpness score of 74.5 (drawish), meaning 74.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 42 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 40.0%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 600 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 43.2%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation has a 17.3% (90% CI: 16.4%-18.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 57 moves with a 64.4% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation has a 26.6% (90% CI: 25.6%-27.7%) win rate for white (4.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 39.2%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 40.9%-42.8%) win rate for white (7.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 14.8%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation has a 34.4% (90% CI: 31.8%-37.1%) win rate for white (869 Lichess games). Draw rate is 36.4%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation has a 22.3% (90% CI: 17.0%-28.0%) win rate for white (153 Lichess games). Draw rate is 65.0%.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation a good opening?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation is slightly favors black with a 35.7% (90% CI: 35.0%-36.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.