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Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation

3.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score56.9%Range (90% confident): 55.6% – 58.2%Based on 3.9K games
0%56.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.6% – 58.2%
Outcome Distribution
53.8%6.2%40.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Nc3
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation
Analyzen=3.9K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.2%

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation has a 56.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.6% and 58.2%), based on 3.9K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 64% → 62%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 63.6% win rate (4 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.5% win rate (4 games)
  • 1200-1399: 36.2% win rate (22 games)
  • 1400-1599: 37.9% win rate (100 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.2% win rate (234 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.8% win rate (540 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.1% win rate (1,164 games)
  • 2200-2499: 56.5% win rate (1,423 games)
  • 2500+: 61.5% win rate (445 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (56%), worst in Classical (46%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 55.5% win rate (1,085 games)
  • Blitz: 53.3% win rate (2,338 games)
  • Rapid: 52.5% win rate (481 games)
  • Classical: 46.3% win rate (32 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 39.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (60 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (107 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (72 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (80 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (337 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (108 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (272 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (716 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (170 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 83.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 59.9% expected score (384 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (933 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 69.6% expected score (101 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.8% expected score (270 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (172 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack
51.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Collijn Variation
52.9%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Goteborg System
54.6%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Orthodox Attack
44.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.5%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 61.5% win rate for white (445 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (55.5%) outperforms Rapid (52.5%) by 3.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation has a 37.9% (90% CI: 30.2%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 100 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 39.9%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 234 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 43.3%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 540 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation has a 56.5% (90% CI: 54.3%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation has a 61.5% (90% CI: 57.7%-65.2%) win rate for white, based on 445 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 53.1%-58.0%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 51.6%-55.0%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 48.8%-56.3%) win rate for white (481 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.5%-55.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.