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Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit

24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.3%Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 48.8%Based on 24K games
0%48.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 48.8%
Outcome Distribution
46.0%4.5%49.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...e5
Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit
Analyzen=24K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.5%

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 48.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 48.8%), based on 24K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 96.3 · Trap factor: -11.4 · n=24K

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~52%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.0% win rate (36 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.7% win rate (96 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.0% win rate (333 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.0% win rate (1,043 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.6% win rate (4,035 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.3% win rate (8,887 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.2% win rate (6,451 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.9% win rate (2,862 games)
  • 2500+: 51.2% win rate (503 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (57%), worst in Classical (31%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 56.5% win rate (10 games)
  • Bullet: 44.9% win rate (9,427 games)
  • Blitz: 46.3% win rate (13,052 games)
  • Rapid: 49.6% win rate (1,741 games)
  • Classical: 31.4% win rate (16 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (50 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (39 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (147 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (160 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (425 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (522 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (91 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (1,618 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (2,049 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (364 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (2,699 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (5,581 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (601 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (2,394 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (3,501 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (550 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (1,730 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 66.3% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (343 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (117 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (43 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack
51.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Collijn Variation
52.9%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Goteborg System
54.6%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Orthodox Attack
44.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 24K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (503 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (49.6%) outperforms Bullet (44.9%) by 4.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 45.0% (90% CI: 40.5%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 333 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 43.5%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.3%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.2%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 47.6%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 503 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.7%) win rate for white (9.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.0%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-51.6%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit is slightly favors black with a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.