Robatsch Defense

1 variations · 98K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

4...Bg4

Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

51.6%

45%55%

Floor51.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.9%.

Measured over 98K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

49.4%4.3%46.3%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 98K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here: #5 of 62
Games in this context: 98K
Best context: 56.9% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context: 48.9% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Variations measured: 1
Average game length: 35 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall

#1Robatsch DefenseBest here

1.d4 d6 2.Nf3 g6 3.c4 Bg7 4.e4 Bg4

Floor 51.3% · 98K games

51.6%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 61.1% at 0-999, 49.7% at 2500+.

Rating	UB	Class
0-999		—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (560 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (519 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (75 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (1,557 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (2,593 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (429 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (3,316 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (7,561 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (1,538 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (4,808 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (13,376 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (3,526 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (100 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.7% expected score (13 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (5,451 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (14,785 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (5,179 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (207 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (4,734 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (10,026 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (3,890 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (182 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (2,556 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (4,090 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (1,381 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (44 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (1,649 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (2,289 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (306 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (454 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (377 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)

1 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

Robatsch Defense98K games

Balanced51.6%Floor 51.3%

Analyze Robatsch Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Robatsch Defense family scores 51.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.3% and 51.9% — from 98K Lichess games across 1 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 98K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Robatsch Defense win rate?

Across the Robatsch Defense's 1 variations, Black wins 49.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 98K rated games from Lichess.

How many Robatsch Defense variations are there?

1 Robatsch Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Robatsch Defense perform best?

The Robatsch Defense family performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 57.1% (1.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Robatsch Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Robatsch Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.2% in Blitz (56K games) against 49.9% in Rapid (16K games).

How sharp is the Robatsch Defense?

Robatsch Defense games are 95.7% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Robatsch Defense a good opening family?

The Robatsch Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 49.4% and loses 46.3%. Results differ between its 1 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.