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Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense

19M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.1%Range (90% confident): 51.1% – 51.1%Based on 19M games
0%51.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.1% – 51.1%
Outcome Distribution
49.2%3.8%47.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...g6
Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense
Analyzen=19M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 51.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.1% and 51.1%), based on 19M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.7% win rate (420,390 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.0% win rate (986,009 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.4% win rate (2,074,330 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.8% win rate (3,404,095 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.3% win rate (4,304,232 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.6% win rate (3,892,474 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.9% win rate (2,372,804 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.9% win rate (1,376,932 games)
  • 2500+: 49.6% win rate (306,088 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.8% win rate (134,616 games)
  • Bullet: 49.3% win rate (9,712,812 games)
  • Blitz: 49.1% win rate (7,716,491 games)
  • Rapid: 48.7% win rate (1,529,997 games)
  • Classical: 48.0% win rate (43,438 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.2% expected score (1,008 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (142,900 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (211,405 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (64,636 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (441 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.5% expected score (3,156 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (390,394 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (470,945 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (119,683 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (1,831 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (10,151 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (866,755 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (976,005 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (215,579 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (5,840 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (28,409 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,444,689 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (1,580,676 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (337,728 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (12,593 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (42,200 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,922,670 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (1,933,485 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (392,546 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (13,331 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (29,277 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (2,004,020 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (1,560,382 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (290,927 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (7,868 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (13,992 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,555,407 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (709,051 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (92,992 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (5,897 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (1,103,032 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (252,443 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (15,389 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (171 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (526 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (282,945 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (22,099 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (517 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Pawn Game
50.0%
Variations (5)
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System
51.6%
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit
49.6%
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit Accepted
45.9%
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit, Morris Countergambit
49.9%
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit, Morris Countergambit Accepted
49.8%
Analyze Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 19M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense perform best?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.9% win rate for white (1.4M games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (49.8%) outperforms Classical (48.0%) by 1.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.6%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 420K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 986K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.1M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.8%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.9M Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 306K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.0%) win rate for white (135K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.3%) win rate for white (9.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.1%) win rate for white (7.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.7%) win rate for white (1.5M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.4%) win rate for white (43K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense is statistically balanced with a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.