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Analyzer

Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit

7.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score43.4%Range (90% confident): 42.4% – 44.4%Based on 7.1K games
0%43.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 42.4% – 44.4%
Outcome Distribution
41.2%4.2%54.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.d4
Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit
Analyzen=7.1K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a 43.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 42.4% and 44.4%), based on 7.1K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +1.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.5% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 36% → 14%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 35.7% win rate (2,570 games)
  • 1000-1199: 40.8% win rate (1,066 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.3% win rate (798 games)
  • 1400-1599: 36.6% win rate (678 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.3% win rate (554 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.2% win rate (1,188 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.0% win rate (180 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.0% win rate (68 games)
  • 2500+: 14.3% win rate (2 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Classical (31%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.5% win rate (84 games)
  • Bullet: 44.1% win rate (1,525 games)
  • Blitz: 43.6% win rate (2,823 games)
  • Rapid: 37.2% win rate (2,551 games)
  • Classical: 30.6% win rate (121 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.5% expected score (385 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (941 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (1,212 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (152 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (461 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (420 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 28.5% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (110 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (370 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (284 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (74 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (269 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.1% expected score (283 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.6% expected score (39 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (104 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (201 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (202 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (584 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (455 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (143 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 39.0% expected score (107 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (68 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Portuguese Opening
43.4%
Variations (1)
Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit
33.1%
Analyze Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate?

The Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a 41.2% (90% CI: 40.3%-42.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit perform best?

The Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (1.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (44.1%) outperforms Classical (30.6%) by 13.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit?

The Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a 35.7% (90% CI: 34.2%-37.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a 40.8% (90% CI: 38.3%-43.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a 41.3% (90% CI: 38.5%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 798 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a 36.6% (90% CI: 33.6%-39.6%) win rate for white, based on 678 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 554 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a 41.0% (90% CI: 35.1%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 180 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a 44.1% (90% CI: 42.0%-46.2%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a 43.6% (90% CI: 42.0%-45.1%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a 37.2% (90% CI: 35.6%-38.8%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a 30.6% (90% CI: 24.0%-37.6%) win rate for white (121 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

Is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit a good opening?

The Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit is slightly favors black with a 41.2% (90% CI: 40.3%-42.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.