TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation

490 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score49.5%Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 53.2%Based on 490 games
0%49.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 53.2%
Outcome Distribution
44.0%10.9%45.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation
n=490
Avg Length41 moves
Sharpness89%
Draw Rate10.9%

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 49.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.8% and 53.2%), based on 490 Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 48%

1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1400-1599: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
  • 1600-1799: 24.5% win rate (25 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (33 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.3% win rate (144 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.5% win rate (211 games)
  • 2500+: 48.3% win rate (74 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (55%), worst in Classical (20%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 54.8% win rate (76 games)
  • Blitz: 43.2% win rate (375 games)
  • Rapid: 33.3% win rate (33 games)
  • Classical: 20.0% win rate (6 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399—————
1400-1599————
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 61.6% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 61.6% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (112 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (58 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Indian Defense
48.4%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation
50.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation
48.9%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Macieja System
54.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Pirc Variation
47.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Steiner Variation
46.2%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 40.4%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 490 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.3% win rate for white (74 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.8%) outperforms Blitz (43.2%) by 11.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 89.1 (moderately decisive), meaning 89.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 42.3% (90% CI: 35.6%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 144 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 10.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 38.9%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 211 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 39.0%-47.4%) win rate for white (375 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.5%.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.0% (90% CI: 40.4%-47.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.