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King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation

5.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.6%Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 49.8%Based on 5.1K games
0%48.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 49.8%
Outcome Distribution
46.0%5.1%48.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.b4
King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation
Analyzen=5.1K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.1%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a 48.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 49.8%), based on 5.1K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 41% → 56%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.7% win rate (167 games)
  • 1000-1199: 40.1% win rate (389 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.4% win rate (633 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.5% win rate (619 games)
  • 1600-1799: 40.7% win rate (557 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.6% win rate (467 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.3% win rate (1,561 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.4% win rate (625 games)
  • 2500+: 56.2% win rate (35 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (47%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 33.3% win rate (6 games)
  • Bullet: 43.0% win rate (799 games)
  • Blitz: 47.3% win rate (3,531 games)
  • Rapid: 43.9% win rate (688 games)
  • Classical: 34.4% win rate (29 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (97 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (97 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (225 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (67 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.4% expected score (161 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (342 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 37.4% expected score (125 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.5% expected score (93 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (379 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (137 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (81 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (332 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (128 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (105 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (245 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (113 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (68 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (1,432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (61 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (127 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (465 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 69.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Accelerated Averbakh Variation
49.7%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation
55.2%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense
46.8%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Advance Variation
50.6%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation
49.1%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (1.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.3%) outperforms Bullet (43.0%) by 4.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a 40.7% (90% CI: 34.5%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 167 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a 40.1% (90% CI: 36.0%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 389 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a 41.4% (90% CI: 38.2%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 633 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a 41.5% (90% CI: 38.3%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 619 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a 40.7% (90% CI: 37.3%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 557 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 44.8%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 467 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 46.1%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 625 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 40.2%-45.9%) win rate for white (799 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.6%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 40.8%-47.0%) win rate for white (688 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Santasiere Variation is slightly favors black with a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-47.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.