205 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, with Bg5 has a 52.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.2% and 58.6%), based on 205 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 56%
Best in Bullet (58%), worst in Blitz (45%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, with Bg5 has a 50.6% (90% CI: 44.9%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 205 rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, with Bg5 performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 55.1% win rate for white (72 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (58.3%) outperforms Blitz (45.1%) by 13.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, with Bg5 has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, with Bg5 has a 45.1% (90% CI: 37.3%-53.0%) win rate for white (106 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, with Bg5 is slightly favors black with a 50.6% (90% CI: 44.9%-56.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.