11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation has a 49.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.7% and 50.2%), based on 11K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 48%
Best in Classical (58%), worst in Rapid (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 11K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (379 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (47.6%) outperforms Rapid (43.6%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 43.0%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 144 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 379 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 43.9%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.9%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.0%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.2%-49.0%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.5%) win rate for white (7.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 40.3%-47.0%) win rate for white (600 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Panno Formation is statistically balanced with a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.