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King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line

110K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.9%Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 48.1%Based on 110K games
0%47.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 48.1%
Outcome Distribution
45.6%4.6%49.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.d5
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line
Analyzen=110K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 47.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.6% and 48.1%), based on 110K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.2% win rate (261 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.6% win rate (1,052 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.0% win rate (3,019 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.0% win rate (7,835 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.7% win rate (15,863 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.7% win rate (26,651 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.5% win rate (28,970 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.8% win rate (22,194 games)
  • 2500+: 50.6% win rate (4,546 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.1% win rate (34 games)
  • Bullet: 46.3% win rate (33,163 games)
  • Blitz: 45.5% win rate (62,310 games)
  • Rapid: 44.4% win rate (14,076 games)
  • Classical: 40.5% win rate (808 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (122 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (116 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (485 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (475 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 36.3% expected score (90 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (1,057 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (1,553 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (398 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (2,195 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (4,411 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (1,168 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (57 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (3,327 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (9,622 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (2,684 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (224 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (5,204 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (16,477 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (4,626 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (334 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (6,640 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (18,477 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (3,692 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (156 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (10,552 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (10,233 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (1,377 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (3,581 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (946 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (19 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Accelerated Averbakh Variation
49.7%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation
55.2%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense
46.8%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Advance Variation
50.6%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation
49.1%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 110K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.6% win rate for white (4.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.3%) outperforms Classical (40.5%) by 5.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 43.2% (90% CI: 38.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 261 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 44.6% (90% CI: 42.1%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 44.0% (90% CI: 42.5%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.8%) win rate for white (33K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.8%) win rate for white (62K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.1%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a 40.5% (90% CI: 37.6%-43.3%) win rate for white (808 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line is slightly favors black with a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.