11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System has a 54.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.9% and 55.5%), based on 11K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 57%
Best in Blitz (53%), worst in Classical (26%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 11K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 56.6% win rate for white (904 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (52.7%) outperforms Rapid (46.2%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System has a 51.9% (90% CI: 44.4%-59.4%) win rate for white, based on 117 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System has a 50.0% (90% CI: 46.3%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 514 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System has a 52.4% (90% CI: 50.9%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.2%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System has a 56.6% (90% CI: 53.9%-59.3%) win rate for white, based on 904 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.3%-53.3%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.6%) win rate for white (7.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System has a 46.2% (90% CI: 42.6%-49.8%) win rate for white (519 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.9%.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System is statistically favors white with a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.