7.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 51.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.6% and 52.6%), based on 7.0K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 59% → 39%
Best in Rapid (53%), worst in UltraBullet (38%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 49.9% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (53.1%) outperforms Blitz (45.7%) by 7.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a sharpness score of 91.4 (decisive), meaning 91.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 44.0%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 160 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 46.4% (90% CI: 41.9%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 327 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 47.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 599 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 47.4%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 46.9%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 39.1% (90% CI: 36.4%-41.8%) win rate for white, based on 903 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 25.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.0%-50.4%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.5%-47.0%) win rate for white (4.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.6%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 53.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-56.4%) win rate for white (632 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense is statistically balanced with a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.