73K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 54.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.9% and 54.5%), based on 73K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 44% → 51%
Best in Blitz (52%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 73K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (30K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (51.8%) outperforms Classical (48.8%) by 3.0%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 49.0% (90% CI: 44.0%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 269 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 46.2% (90% CI: 43.3%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 783 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.2%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 15.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.8%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.1%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.0%) win rate for white (5.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.
In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 48.8% (90% CI: 44.3%-53.2%) win rate for white (340 Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.3%.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack is statistically favors white with a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.